← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vasco Santos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 70% | 65% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.12 | value: +15% |
| Feirense win | 11% | 13% | 9.13 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Bruno Viana · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 36' | 🟨 | Oghenekaro Etebo · Feirense |
| 36' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 38' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 45' | ⚽ | Oghenekaro Etebo · Feirense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 240.00 | 636.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.06 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1655.40 | 1491.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.64 | -30.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 22.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | 1.07 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |