← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 65% | 65% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.48 | fair |
| Chaves win | 13% | 13% | 7.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Ricardo Esgaio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 58' | ⚽ | Bruno Viana · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 69' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 211.00 | 485.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1631.89 | 1498.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.00 | 24.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |