← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 48% | 40% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.47 | value: +9% |
| Aves win | 24% | 29% | 4.12 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Defendi · Aves |
| 38' | ⚽ | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 43' | 🟨 | Salvador Agra · Aves |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rúben Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 69' | ⚽ | Cristian Arango · Aves |
| 71' | 🟨 | Felipe Macedo · Portimonense |
| 74' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 88' | ⚽ | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 456.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1430.65 | 1412.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.49 | -6.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.71 | 55.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.71 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |