← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Sep 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Goncalo Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 86% | 90% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 7% | 9.98 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 4% | 3% | 22.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Ewerton · Portimonense |
| 49' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 56' | ⚽ | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 59' | 🟥 | Emmanuel Hackman · Portimonense |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 75' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Portimonense |
| 78' | ⚽ | André Almeida · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ricardo Ferreira · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| coach days |
| 830.00 |
| 434.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | — |
| elo | 1924.82 | 1422.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.27 | -21.62 |
| eye test v1 | 1.13 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.53 |
| league points | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 74.75 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | — |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.75 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.75 |
| squad age | 24.26 | — |
| state index | 1.73 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |