← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 64% | 71% | 1.53 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.40 | fair |
| Feirense win | 14% | 10% | 6.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Rui Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Lazar Rosić · Feirense |
| 22' | ⚽ | Ahmed Hassan · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 30' | 🟨 | Icaro · Feirense |
| 42' | ⚽ | Rui Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mauro · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 54' | 🟨 | Paulo Monteiro · Feirense |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 60' | ⚽ | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 65' | ⚽ | Higor Platiny · Feirense |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 516.00 | 272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 1.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | — |
| elo | 1640.57 | 1414.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.23 | -25.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 56.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.88 | 23.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.10 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.11 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |