← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 81% | 87% | 1.21 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 13% | 8% | 7.29 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 6% | 5% | 16.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 64' | ⚽ | Eduardo Salvio · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 87' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 515.00 | 485.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| elo | 1941.55 | 1538.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.10 | 11.16 |
| eye test v1 | 1.73 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.29 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| league points | 22.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.75 | 1.13 |
| skill v1 | 1.79 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.43 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.35 | — |
| state index | 2.06 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |