← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Nijhuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 67% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.08 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 14% | 15% | 7.00 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Utrecht −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 65% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 35% | 2.78 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Mees de Wit · AZ |
| 16' | ⚽ | Ruben van Bommel · AZ |
| 37' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · AZ |
| 38' | 🟨 | Vangelis Pavlidis · AZ |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sadiq · AZ |
| 55' | ⚽ | Othman Boussaid · FC Utrecht |
| 60' | 🟥 | Dani de Wit · AZ |
| 71' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · FC Utrecht |
| 81' | ⚽ | Victor Jensen · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 14 |
| 8 | Fouls | 3 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 139.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1714.33 | 1612.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.89 | 2.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 64.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.91 | 26.46 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.47 |