← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Nagtegaal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 73% | 77% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.86 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 10% | 8% | 10.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Waalwijk −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 68% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 32% | 2.72 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | David Min · Waalwijk |
| 42' | ⚽ | David Min · Waalwijk |
| 66' | ⚽ | Yukinari Sugawara · AZ |
| 67' | 🟨 | David Min · Waalwijk |
| 74' | 🟨 | Chris Lokesa · Waalwijk |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Sadiq · AZ |
| 77' | 🟨 | Etienne Vaessen · Waalwijk |
| 77' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · AZ |
| 83' | 🟨 | Wouter Goes · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 103.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1672.33 | 1440.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.91 | 1.92 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 48.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| league points | 52.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.96 | 27.04 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.69 |