← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 28, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 45% | 50% | 2.19 | value: +9% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| SC Heerenveen +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 1.93 | value: +8% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 20' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · AZ |
| 23' | 🟨 | Dani de Wit · AZ |
| 24' | ⚽ (og) | Jordy Clasie · SC Heerenveen |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sven Mijnans · AZ |
| 40' | 🟥 | Denso Kasius · AZ |
| 51' | ⚽ | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Paweł Bochniewicz · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 576.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1493.66 | 1664.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.49 | -37.56 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 20.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 8.68 | 7.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.51 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | 1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.65 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.69 |