← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 9, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 78% | 79% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.66 | fair |
| Almere City win | 8% | 7% | 13.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ −1.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Almere City −1.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 67% | 1.58 | value: +6% |
| Under | 40% | 33% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · AZ |
| 23' | 🟨 | Damian van Bruggen · Almere City |
| 56' | ⚽ | Loïc Mbe Soh · Almere City |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joey Jacobs · Almere City |
| 66' | ⚽ | Dani de Wit · AZ |
| 73' | 🟨 | Stije Resink · Almere City |
| 80' | ⚽ | David Møller Wolfe · AZ |
| 81' | 🟨 | Yann Kitala · Almere City |
| 88' | 🟨 | David Møller Wolfe · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordy Clasie · AZ |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Sherel Constancio Floranus · Almere City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1103.00 | 738.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 6.17 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1730.68 | 1469.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.41 | -21.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 30.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | -0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 1.33 | -1.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 25.38 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 2.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.35 |