← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 69% | 71% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.19 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 12% | 11% | 8.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −1.5 | 55% | 1.76 |
| AZ −1.5 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 61% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 39% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 28' | 🟨 | Dani de Wit · AZ |
| 35' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jordy Clasie · AZ |
| 49' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · AZ |
| 82' | ⚽ (og) | Dimitrios Siovas · AZ |
| 88' | ⚽ | Tiago Dantas · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Deroy Duarte · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1034.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1729.34 | 1454.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.46 | 14.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| league points | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 2.86 | 8.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.53 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 1.23 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.59 | — |
| state index | 1.05 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.58 |