← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 55% | 56% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.03 | value: +4% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 21% | 18% | 4.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle +0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| AZ +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 61% | 1.74 | value: +6% |
| Under | 45% | 39% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Mayckel Lahdo · AZ |
| 23' | 🟨 | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 26' | 🟨 | Davy van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ferdy Druijf · PEC Zwolle |
| 52' | ⚽ | Myron Van Brederode · AZ |
| 63' | 🟨 | David Møller Wolfe · AZ |
| 75' | 🟨 | Myron Van Brederode · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| coach days | 692.00 | 1027.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.15 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1455.87 | 1748.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.22 | -8.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.19 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.55 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 0.72 |
| solidity v1 | 0.83 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.31 | 24.75 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.83 |