← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Aug 13, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 63% | 74% | 1.54 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.41 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 15% | 11% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Go Ahead Eagles −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 65% | 1.76 | value: +14% |
| Under | 45% | 35% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Jamal Amofa · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 4' | ⚽ | Jordy Clasie · AZ |
| 15' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · AZ |
| 17' | 🟨 | Dani de Wit · AZ |
| 34' | 🟨 | Gerrit Nauber · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ruben van Bommel · AZ |
| 65' | 🟨 | Pantelis Hatzidiakos · AZ |
| 66' | ⚽ | Philippe Rommens · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mats Deijl · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani de Wit · AZ |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| ⚽ |
| Mayckel Lahdo · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 985.00 | 377.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.55 | 3.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1741.50 | 1471.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.02 | 7.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 2.81 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 24.82 |
| state index | 0.96 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | — |