← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 8, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: P. van Boekel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 44% | 46% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 27% | 26% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Emmen −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.17 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 21' | 🟨 | Dirk Abels · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 47' | 🟨 | Tobias Lauritsen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ole Romeny · FC Emmen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Miguel Araujo · FC Emmen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Miguel Araujo · FC Emmen |
| 69' | 🟥 | Miguel Araujo · FC Emmen |
| 82' | ⚽ | Bart Vriends · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mario Engels · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel |
| 🟨 |
| Jasin Assehnoun · FC Emmen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mario Engels · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 190.00 | 2320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1515.93 | 1435.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.38 | -35.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 5.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.35 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |