← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AZ win | 77% | 79% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.50 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 8% | 9% | 13.00 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AZ −1.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Willem II Tilburg −1.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 51% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 49% | 2.46 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand