← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, May 2, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Blom
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 86% | 87% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 9% | 10.45 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 4% | 4% | 26.37 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax −2.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| FC Emmen −2.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 75% | 72% | 1.28 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand