← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 3, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Nijhuis
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Groningen win | 49% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 24% | 27% | 4.12 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VVV Venlo +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Groningen +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 42% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 58% | 2.01 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Covebo Stadion - De Koel - |