← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 30, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 47% | 53% | 2.06 | value: +9% |
| VVV Venlo win | 27% | 22% | 3.56 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.81 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Fortuna Sittard −0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 56% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 44% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Martin Angha · Fortuna Sittard |
| 32' | 🟨 | Thorsten Kirschbaum · VVV Venlo |
| 33' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giorgos Giakoumakis · VVV Venlo |
| 56' | 🟨 | Kristopher Da Graca · VVV Venlo |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Mats Seuntjens · Fortuna Sittard |
| 63' | ⚽ | Giorgos Giakoumakis · VVV Venlo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Roel Janssen · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ben Rienstra · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | ⚽ | Torino Hunte · VVV Venlo |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 213.00 | 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1465.15 | 1472.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.76 | 70.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.58 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |