← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 16, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Kamphuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 63% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.89 | value: +12% |
| FC Emmen win | 16% | 18% | 5.82 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vitesse +1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC Emmen +1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 50% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 50% | 2.43 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Thomas Buitink · Vitesse |
| 9' | ⚽ | Oussama Tannane · Vitesse |
| 49' | ⚽ | Armando Broja · Vitesse |
| 57' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · Vitesse |
| 58' | ⚽ | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Vitesse |
| 72' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Vitesse |
| 79' | 🟨 | Keziah Veendorp · FC Emmen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nick Bakker · FC Emmen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jari Vlak · FC Emmen |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 0 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | De Oude Meerdijk |
| ⚽ |
| Patrick Vroegh · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1690.00 | 199.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1391.57 | 1654.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.80 | 14.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.80 |
| league points | 5.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 3.81 | 3.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.31 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.63 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |