← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Wed, Jan 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. van der Laan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 37% | 29% | 2.60 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 36% | 42% | 2.73 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.63 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| ADO Den Haag +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +4% |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Shaquille Pinas · ADO Den Haag |
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Giorgos Giakoumakis · VVV Venlo |
| 35' | 🟨 | Joshua John · VVV Venlo |
| 42' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · VVV Venlo |
| 44' | 🟨 | Boy Kemper · ADO Den Haag |
| 58' | ⚽ | Giorgos Giakoumakis · VVV Venlo |
| 65' | ⚽ | Samy Bourard · ADO Den Haag |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tristan Dekker · VVV Venlo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Juan Castillo · ADO Den Haag |
| 68' | ⚽ | Giorgos Giakoumakis · VVV Venlo |
| 86' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Giorgos Giakoumakis · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 378.00 | 409.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1410.48 | 1412.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.17 | -19.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.50 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 4.15 | 3.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.80 | -14.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |