← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Jan 10, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Kamphuis
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 42% | 40% | 2.35 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 32% | 28% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.71 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VVV Venlo +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Willem II Tilburg +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Covebo Stadion - De Koel - |