← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 5, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 42% | 44% | 2.33 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 32% | 31% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Waalwijk −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 56% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 44% | 2.50 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Roy Gelmi · VVV Venlo |
| 28' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 30' | ⚽ | Finn Stokkers · Waalwijk |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Giorgos Giakoumakis · VVV Venlo |
| 51' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · VVV Venlo |
| 52' | 🟨 | Saïd Bakari · Waalwijk |
| 55' | 🟨 | Roy Gelmi · VVV Venlo |
| 55' | 🟥 | Roy Gelmi · VVV Venlo |
| 59' | 🟨 | Vurnon Anita · Waalwijk |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ahmed Touba · Waalwijk |
| 75' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Mandemakers Stadion |
| ⚽ |
| Ahmed Touba · Waalwijk |
| 87' | ⚽ | Lennerd Daneels · Waalwijk |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zinédine Machach · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 888.00 | 370.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.01 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1386.95 | 1432.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.92 | -10.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -1.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.62 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.85 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.54 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.54 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |