← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Nov 1, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Kuipers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 59% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.58 | value: +7% |
| FC Emmen win | 20% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen +1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 67% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 33% | 2.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Nick Marsman · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Anco Jansen · FC Emmen |
| 31' | 🟨 | Nick Bakker · FC Emmen |
| 36' | 🟥 | Anco Jansen · FC Emmen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Miguel Araujo · FC Emmen |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Diemers · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 42' | ⚽ | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 64' | 🟨 | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Chacon · FC Emmen |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 24 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | De Oude Meerdijk |
| 🟨 |
| Naoufal Bannis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Naoufal Bannis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1614.00 | 397.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1451.35 | 1694.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.58 | -32.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| league points | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 2.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.22 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |