← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 49% | 53% | 2.04 | value: +7% |
| FC Emmen win | 26% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| SC Heerenveen −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 62% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 38% | 2.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · SC Heerenveen |
| 26' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · SC Heerenveen |
| 29' | ⚽ | Benjamin Nygren · SC Heerenveen |
| 47' | 🟨 | Simon Tibbling · FC Emmen |
| 52' | 🟨 | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
| 52' | 🟨 | Simon Tibbling · FC Emmen |
| 52' | 🟥 | Simon Tibbling · FC Emmen |
| 71' | ⚽ | Rodney Kongolo · SC Heerenveen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · SC Heerenveen |
| 77' | 🟥 | Nikolai Laursen · FC Emmen |
| 84' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Sieben Dewaele · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1606.00 | 1606.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.37 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1541.54 | 1463.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.42 | -21.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.67 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| league points | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 6.27 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |