← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 24, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 74% | 76% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.13 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 10% | 9% | 10.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo +1.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| AFC Ajax +1.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 68% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · AFC Ajax |
| 17' | ⚽ | Lassina Traore · AFC Ajax |
| 18' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 32' | ⚽ | Lassina Traore · AFC Ajax |
| 44' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 51' | 🟥 | Christian Kum · VVV Venlo |
| 54' | ⚽ | Lassina Traore · AFC Ajax |
| 55' | ⚽ | Antony · AFC Ajax |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · AFC Ajax |
| 59' | ⚽ | Daley Blind · AFC Ajax |
| 65' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 3 | Shots | 45 |
| 0 | On target | 23 |
| 3 | Corners | 12 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Covebo Stadion - De Koel - |
| Lassina Traore · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 76' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 78' | ⚽ | Lisandro Martínez · AFC Ajax |
| 87' | ⚽ | Lassina Traore · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 328.00 | 1027.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1442.61 | 1812.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.49 | -2.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 6.85 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.95 |
| state index | -0.38 | 1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.39 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |