← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Fri, Feb 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Ingmar Oostrom, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 40% | 36% | 2.37 | fair |
| Heracles win | 33% | 35% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.71 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Heracles −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| VVV Venlo −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 49% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 51% | 2.12 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Covebo Stadion - De Koel - |