← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 74% | 76% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 5.98 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 10% | 7% | 10.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Emmen −1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 71% | 65% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand