← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Jan 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AZ win | 71% | 68% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.48 | value: +10% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 11% | 12% | 9.00 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AZ −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 52% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 48% | 2.66 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand