← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 9, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 58% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 8% | 4.27 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 19% | 29% | 5.07 | value: +47% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo −1 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Heracles −1 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 64% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Silvester van der Water · Heracles |
| 14' | 🟨 | Richard Neudecker · VVV Venlo |
| 23' | ⚽ | Alexander Merkel · Heracles |
| 33' | 🟨 | Roel Janssen · VVV Venlo |
| 41' | ⚽ | Silvester van der Water · Heracles |
| 56' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · Heracles |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mauro Junior · Heracles |
| 64' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · Heracles |
| 74' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 74' | ⚽ | Peter van Ooijen · VVV Venlo |
| 82' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadion Erve Asito |
| ⚽ |
| Cyriel Dessers · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 496.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1515.23 | 1397.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.42 | -55.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.30 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| league points | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 6.26 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.11 | -1.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |