← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Fri, Sep 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Erwin Blank, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 45% | 44% | 2.11 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 30% | 35% | 3.25 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.94 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| ADO Den Haag −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 56% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 44% | 2.64 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ (og) | John Goossens · FC Emmen |
| 18' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 23' | 🟨 | Nick Bakker · FC Emmen |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jan-Niklas Beste · FC Emmen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 61' | 🟨 | Michiel Kramer · ADO Den Haag |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dion Malone · ADO Den Haag |
| 69' | ⚽ | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Luciano Slagveer · FC Emmen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luciano Slagveer · FC Emmen |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | De Oude Meerdijk stadionveld |
| 🟨 |
| Lorenzo Burnet · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1213.00 | 2064.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1448.31 | 1534.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.53 | -6.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.23 | 5.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |