← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 75% | 68% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 22% | 6.71 | value: +47% |
| FC Emmen win | 10% | 11% | 10.00 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht −1.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| FC Emmen −1.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 64% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Michael Chacon · FC Emmen |
| 38' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · FC Utrecht |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jan-Niklas Beste · FC Emmen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nikolai Laursen · FC Emmen |
| 54' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 58' | ⚽ | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 65' | 🟨 | Adam Maher · FC Utrecht |
| 86' | 🟨 | Sergio Peña · FC Emmen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Issah Abass · FC Utrecht |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| ⚽ |
| Jean-Christophe Bahebeck · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 75.00 | 1200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1576.17 | 1450.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.31 | -24.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 13.35 | 15.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |