← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Fri, Aug 30, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Emmen win | 38% | 38% | 2.52 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 35% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.73 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Emmen +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| PEC Zwolle +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 50% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 50% | 2.29 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 30 | Shots | 18 |
| 8 | On target | 9 |
| 15 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | De Oude Meerdijk stadionveld |