← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 10, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 90% | 86% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 8% | 14.73 | value: +24% |
| FC Emmen win | 3% | 5% | 51.00 | value: +169% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax −3.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Emmen −3.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 81% | 73% | 1.18 | fair |
| Under | 19% | 27% | 5.00 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 32 | Shots | 5 |
| 12 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand