← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 53% | 47% | 1.84 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 25% | 29% | 3.93 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Vyacheslav Karavaev · Vitesse |
| 39' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Vitesse |
| 68' | ⚽ | Peter van Ooijen · VVV Venlo |
| 83' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.61 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days |
| 1779.00 |
| 409.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1463.26 | 1593.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.99 | 23.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.60 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| league points | 41.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |