← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 89% | 78% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 12% | 13.41 | value: +62% |
| Graafschap win | 4% | 10% | 23.85 | value: +147% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 40' | ⚽ | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
| 44' | ⚽ | Nicolás Tagliafico · AFC Ajax |
| 66' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Graafschap |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 87' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days |
| 864.00 |
| 499.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1405.93 | 1865.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.24 | 20.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 1.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.80 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 29.00 | 83.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.88 |
| state index | -0.77 | 1.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |