← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 47% | 48% | 2.07 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Michael Chacon · FC Emmen |
| 52' | 🟨 | Glenn Bijl · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 1078.00 | 348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| -0.40 |
| -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1464.19 | 1558.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.56 | -0.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| league points | 35.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |