← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 42% | 36% | 2.28 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 33% | 39% | 2.91 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Damil Dankerlui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 31' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 48' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · Willem II Tilburg |
| 59' | 🟨 | Freek Heerkens · Willem II Tilburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 64' | ⚽ | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 68' | 🟨 | Damil Dankerlui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 71' | 🟨 | Damil Dankerlui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 71' | 🟥 | Damil Dankerlui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 74' | ⚽ | Tomáš Necid · ADO Den Haag |
| 81' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · Willem II Tilburg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 86' | ⚽ | Tomáš Necid · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1929.00 |
| 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1547.16 | 1502.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 70.68 | -15.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.64 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.54 |
| league points | 42.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |