← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 56% | 52% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.27 | value: +14% |
| VVV Venlo win | 22% | 21% | 4.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · PEC Zwolle |
| 54' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 57' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 65' | ⚽ | Peter van Ooijen · VVV Venlo |
| 74' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Lars Unnerstall · VVV Venlo |
| 85' | ⚽ | Stanley Elbers · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days |
| 162.00 |
| 1776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1487.34 | 1443.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.15 | -2.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| league points | 38.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.51 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |