← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 67% | 71% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.80 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 13% | 12% | 7.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (og) | Bart Straalman · Vitesse |
| 37' | ⚽ | Thomas Buitink · Vitesse |
| 62' | 🟨 | Bart Straalman · Graafschap |
| 65' | 🟨 | Vyacheslav Karavaev · Vitesse |
| 70' | ⚽ | Thomas Buitink · Vitesse |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Martin Ødegaard · Vitesse |
| 80' | ⚽ | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 86' | ⚽ | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
| 88' | ⚽ | Richie Musaba · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days |
| 406.00 |
| 861.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1585.19 | 1414.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.53 | -4.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| league points | 47.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |