← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 53% | 54% | 1.81 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 24% | 25% | 4.04 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · VVV Venlo |
| 74' | 🟨 | Roel Janssen · VVV Venlo |
| 75' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 89' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1056.00 |
| 1757.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1494.68 | 1440.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.33 | -5.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 37.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |