← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 45% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 28% | 27% | 3.41 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Nick Kuipers · FC Emmen |
| 30' | ⚽ | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
| 40' | ⚽ | Keziah Veendorp · FC Emmen |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jean-Christophe Bahebeck · FC Utrecht |
| 67' | 🟨 | Glenn Bijl · FC Emmen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 77' | 🟨 | Keziah Veendorp · FC Emmen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Cyriel Dessers · FC Utrecht |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luciano Slagveer · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 23 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| coach days | 1053.00 | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1444.07 | 1620.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.75 | 5.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.28 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| league points | 29.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.86 | 26.50 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |