← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 40% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 33% | 36% | 2.96 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Andrija Novakovich · Fortuna Sittard |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ruben Ramirez · Fortuna Sittard |
| 52' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 81' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · VVV Venlo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jorrit Smeets · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1223.00 |
| 1747.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1448.51 | 1424.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.28 | -15.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| league points | 30.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |