β Eredivisie 2018-19 Β· Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 42% | 44% | 2.29 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 31% | 32% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | β½ | Luciano Slagveer Β· FC Emmen |
| 72' | π¨ | Keziah Veendorp Β· FC Emmen |
| 76' | π¨ | Michael Chacon Β· FC Emmen |
| 88' | β½ | Erik Palmer-Brown Β· NAC Breda |
| 90' | π¨ | Ivan IliΔ Β· NAC Breda |
| 90' | π¨ | Gervane Kastaneer Β· NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 11 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days |
| 254.00 |
| 1045.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1383.26 | 1441.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.36 | -13.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| league points | 21.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |