← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 39% | 31% | 2.46 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 36% | 37% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 32% | 3.91 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Caner Cavlan · FC Emmen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
| 57' | 🟨 | Hilal Ben Moussa · FC Emmen |
| 75' | ⚽ | Caner Cavlan · FC Emmen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Glenn Bijl · FC Emmen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Reuven Niemeijer · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| coach days |
| 1040.00 |
| 1040.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1424.63 | 1519.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.51 | -8.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.22 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |