← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 61% | 55% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 27% | 4.66 | value: +25% |
| Graafschap win | 18% | 18% | 5.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 54' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Graafschap |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mats Seuntjens · AZ |
| 77' | 🟨 | Pantelis Hatzidiakos · AZ |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ted Van de Pavert · Graafschap |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Marco Bizot · Graafschap |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days | 825.00 | 1678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1421.10 | 1694.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.29 | 16.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| league points | 25.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.51 | 25.10 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |