← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 54% | 47% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.02 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 22% | 29% | 4.50 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Jonathan Opoku · VVV Venlo |
| 22' | ⚽ | Riechedly Bazoer · FC Utrecht |
| 41' | ⚽ | Patrick Joosten · VVV Venlo |
| 53' | ⚽ | Riechedly Bazoer · FC Utrecht |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Danny Post · FC Utrecht |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sean Klaiber · FC Utrecht |
| 69' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 88' | ⚽ | Michiel Kramer · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1737.00 | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1458.67 | 1635.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.38 | 30.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| league points | 33.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.72 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.90 | 26.29 |
| state index | -0.25 | 1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.92 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |