← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 86% | 79% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 13% | 10.07 | value: +35% |
| FC Emmen win | 5% | 7% | 20.67 | value: +47% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 24' | 🟨 | Rasmus Kristensen · AFC Ajax |
| 28' | 🟨 | Alexander Bannink · FC Emmen |
| 43' | ⚽ | Daley Blind · AFC Ajax |
| 50' | 🟨 | Nick Kuipers · FC Emmen |
| 51' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 53' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 60' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Nicolás Tagliafico · FC Emmen |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jafar Arias · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| coach days | 1036.00 | 457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1430.77 | 1856.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.20 | 10.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 1.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.85 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 2.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 8.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.40 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 24.50 |
| state index | -1.32 | 1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |