← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 61% | 65% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.38 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 17% | 15% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | 🟨 | Javier Vet · Graafschap |
| 76' | ⚽ | Paul Gladon · FC Groningen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ted Van de Pavert · Graafschap |
| 90' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Graafschap |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium |
| coach days | 305.00 | 821.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1567.02 | 1425.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.31 | 37.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| league points | 35.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.71 | 25.47 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |