← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 59% | 65% | 1.63 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.10 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 17% | 15% | 5.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 31' | 🟨 | Kenneth Paal · PEC Zwolle |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · PEC Zwolle |
| 71' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · PEC Zwolle |
| 75' | 🟨 | Stanley Elbers · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nick Bakker · FC Emmen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days |
| 120.00 |
| 1033.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1473.19 | 1441.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.62 | -44.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| league points | 29.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 15.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.21 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |