← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 40% | 29% | 2.45 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 33% | 46% | 2.96 | value: +36% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 32' | 🟨 | Roel Janssen · VVV Venlo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Pele Van Anholt · NAC Breda |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christian Kum · VVV Venlo |
| 66' | ⚽ | Greg Leigh · NAC Breda |
| 73' | 🟨 | Moreno Rutten · VVV Venlo |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mounir El Allouchi · NAC Breda |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mounir El Allouchi · NAC Breda |
| 80' | 🟥 | Mounir El Allouchi · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 242.00 | 1734.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1387.88 | 1458.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.72 | -16.14 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| league points | 17.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.37 | 27.50 |
| state index | -1.47 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | -1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |